NBI population model
Newsletter 15/02/2018
After a long winter break, it is high time to start the new season 2018 with a newsletter. The results of a recent modelling offer a good opportunity. Based on the data of our wild living NBI population, the Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research in Berlin performed matrix models, which calculated the future population development of our NBIs over a period of 15 years.
Two different models calculated 100 simulations each. More than 80% of the simulations showed a further population increase of up to a mean of 1000 individuals after 15 years.
These results show that our NBI population has increasing potential for self-sustainment and growth. However, this potential is currently still fragile, especially since these first models do not take into account any singular events that have occurred in the past, such as losses due to a onset of winter or the loss of the annual offspring in a colony. In addition, monitoring and management are still needed, especially to reduce the losses caused by illegal hunting, electrocution and injuries.
The modelling also assumes that no more birds will be released. However, we aim to release juveniles in 2018 and beyond in order to establish new colonies, to promote population growth in existing colonies and to optimize genetic variability.
With our support, we assume that the NBI population will reach a size and structure which ensures self-sustainability, without further monitoring and management, about mid of the 20s. This is a positive perspective and a good motivation for the start of the 2018 season as well as for the currently ongoing preparation for a second LIFE application 2020+.
The collaboration with the Leibniz Institute will be continued. In more differentiated models we want to include additional parameters, in particular climate data, data on the migration behaviour as well as anthropogenic influences such as illegal bird hunting and electrocution on medium voltage power lines.
Picture: D Trobe
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